Crude Oil markets have been moving up recently.. for whatever reasons.  The summer driving season.. Europe showing glimmers of hope for at least a bottoming out to possible recovery.. the Olympics.. whatever..

The rally in Crude seems to be running out of steam.. and with the peak usage month of August nearly in the books.. maybe we can see some softening.

I threw down the gauntlet about.. "no way" can the Williston Basin add much capacity in the short run.. well.. "Not so fast my friend.."  comes this report by EIA..

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=7550

That is a pretty healthy growth curve.. and with over 200 rigs in the play.. hmm.. yal.. that might have an impact.

Again a main problem is takeaway capacity..

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5870

But if we can move etoh by railcar.. we can surely figure out a way to move Crude by railcar..  Plus there are several other fields that are growing.. Eagle Ford in Texas.. the Gulf Coast is back open for business I believe.. etc.. even the Mississippi Lime in this part of the world.. they moved a rig in on the neighbors this weekend.

We "could" see things back off on demand through the winter.. and its possible that the octane needs could be more easily met during the winter as refinery capacity is not strained as hard.. (WAG..???  I don't know..)  The main problem is going to be next summer's driving season.. by then we'll have a few more wells online.. The drillers were able to break the back of the Natty Gas spike.. they "may" be able to handle the Crude side as well.. ??

If we take corn off to the next plateau.. at some point this thing breaks down.. as markets do work.

"Wow.. what a ride.."

edit add:  just as I post this I see Crude is up.. like $1.50'ish.. the knee jerk continues.. possibly on the poor crop reports coming out.. makes etoh's fate.. more drastic.. does that have some impact on Crude..?? 

The Crude market is quite a bit larger.. I have always argued that there is "some" (like greater than 0%) effect.. but admit it isn't very much..(5% at best..on a worldview..) but certainly in the news now.  I guess that I don't really see things continuing as is with Corn moving to the next plateau.. and therefore, yes between demand destruction and a supply response.. Crude can fix itself.. but "we shall see.."  The past month's rally has certainly opened up the production throttle on the Crude side now..  plus they are talking about releasing SPR reserves.. so starting to see things that normally would be "toppy."

then again.. not much lately has been.. "normal."