| You to Chris..
I do agree with Ray.. that it may be time for a well reasoned discussion on just what we want the future to look like..
I also agree with Ethanol Insider that "markets work." I agree with posters who say "burnt up crop.." .. agree with cousinit.. "What about us?" ..who am I leaving out..???
Anyway several seats at the table for a discussion that needs to occur.
As Ray would say.. "What is the point of throwing a party and running corn to who knows where.. when you have to face the music on the 'morning after'?"
I agree that may be something that we need to look at..
I don't want to panic or scare the ethanol industry.. as I don't believe we have to apologize for anything.. the quest is to figure out a way to "make it work.. for everyone."
My own personal views.. (I just checked in.. headed for lunch so will be back later..)
I'm not really a peak oil type.. we have the most reserves in the history of the planet.. we also have the most production AND the most demand.. I tend to agree with Rapier's view of a "long recession." That being that energy prices run up to an "ouch" point.. shut down demand through recession.. then recover.. then new higher demand.. then out of supply and "ouch" again.. repeat..
So we are not really RUNNING OUT of energy.. but AFFORDABLE energy could be a challenge.. One part of the puzzle is that Ethanol has WORKED.. we ran it up to 900 k b/d.. and that's Nothing to Sneeze.. since it's a 100% Gasoline supplement.. replacing it.. at 45% yield of gasoline per bbl.. means you need about 2 mln bbls per day of something else.. (okay not quite that high as you would get other products.. distillate etc..) say 1.45 mln bbs/day..
IF you found 700 bbls per day wells in the Bakken.. then you ONLY NEED 2,071 NEW Wells just to replace THAT.. plus you need to fight the depletion curve.. as well as growth curve.. aka China going from 10 mil b/d consumer to 20 mil b/d consumer over the next.. decade or so.. Per person we consume about 22 bbls per person per year vs about 3 or 4 per person in Asia.. that is going to change going forward..
So there are ALOT of dynamics involved.
Hey I got to go.. back later..
Livestock industry.. yup.. I'm in favor of HAVING ONE... Exports.. ditto.. Church was a presentation of a couple's visit to Tanzania.. we are really spoiled here in the US.. as the living standards across the globe very SIGNIFICANTLY.. so lot's to consider. |