I mean the long term, big ugly bear market in wheat, corn and beans.

Wheat started its ugly bear market in February of 2008. Both corn and beans started their ugly bear market in August of 2012. For the purposes of this discussion, to be out of the bear market, over the next 10 years we need for the price of a commodity to not get lower than it has gotten in the last 3 years.

I'll go first. I think for wheat anyway, the bear market is over. Hard red winter wheat is what I watch and it made a low of around $3.95 (about 28% of it's high) in August of 2016. The last time wheat had been that low was clear back in 2006, 10 years earlier. That August of 2016 low was 2.5 years ago. Wheat has continued to make higher lows and higher highs since then. I think the bear market is over for wheat and by that I mean I don't believe wheat will go below $3.95 again anytime soon. Maybe even never again in my lifetime? Never is a long time but I think the next 10 years wheat is safe.

Corn? I just don't know. Corn has not made a lower low since August of 2016 either. But that low was about 37% of its high. I don't believe in ratios or anything like that but I do believe in pain. Wheat has been the most painful major crop to grow for years and even now it continues to give acres up to corn because of it. Corn yields increasing more rapidly than wheat yields have further reduced the pain corn farmers have experienced relative to wheat farmers. Corn producers have just flat out not experienced the pain that wheat producers have. If you had a corn low that was 28% of the high like wheat did, you would be looking at a low of around $2.36 futures for corn. The last time we saw prices like that was in 2006 (just like wheat). I have some technical (charting) reasons that I think corn could go lower as well, but I think everyone can relate to pain and as both a wheat and a corn producer, I can tell you that if you don't grow wheat, you have not experienced the pain the market is capable of dishing out upon you. Maybe you guys who went through the 80's have experienced pain worse than what a 100% wheat farmer would have experienced trying to sell their 2016 wheat crop after harvest but it could not have been very much worse assuming the wheat guy in 2016 had no debt and the guy in the 80's had no debt.

Beans? I don't follow beans because corn is usually more profitable for me, but I don't like the looks of beans either. I could see them making a pretty good run in the short to medium term but in the longer term, I think there is still potential for new lows. I'm really not sure we're out of the bear market in beans either.

I guess the summary is, from my perspective I think it's a bull market for the short to medium time frame but I'm still pretty worried about the long range possibilities, at least for corn and beans.

What do you guys think? Is the bear market over?