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USDA to use regression modeling to estimate soybeans exports in Wasde?
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 7/10/2018 12:56 (#6860995 - in reply to #6860911)
Subject: RE: Agresource snippet



South Central Iowa
I'd hope they would and make it reactionary to events after they occur. The stocks aren't going anywhere; let it play out.

I'm bothered that they would get into a guessing game on soy exports, but what will they do on SA production and global corn. If SA adds big acres to soy, they will reduce corn plantings. So where is Mexico going to get this new corn? Are Brazilians really willing to massively increase acres in year one over something that could be over with a smile and a handshake? That's just a couple of examples, but there would be several like that.

Their models seem to be far too simple and assume the worse. Tariff equals more U.S. supply at home. That's not how things play out. They should stay out of the guessing game and let it unfold. But they don't care what Conan the Farmer things on some random ag forum. Just us howling at the moon around here.
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