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South Central Iowa | The way the article is written is misleading. It tries to create the impression of long-term oversupply; Exports fall by 40% while Production only falls by 17%!
In real numbers they are saying 16 million acres are switched (50bpa x 16ma = 800mb) and an equal amount of exports will come off (2200 x 40% = 880mb).
That's fine conjecture. I love the part about "advanced version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model". It sounds like a pretty sophomoric and simple calculation and they gave it a great big name, G-Taaaaaap!, to try to impress people with the job they've done. Lol.
I disagree how much exports will come off, but I do agree they are about right on acres. Some domestic crush will shrink too.
Much more corn, quite a bit more wheat, more cotton, more alfalfa, more pasture. | |
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USDA to use regression modeling to estimate soybeans exports in Wasde?
