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| When 1/3 of Iowa is registered in the drought monitor and no rain in the first half of July, a good wide spread rain across the state has to come soon for Iowa to carry a trend line yield. Compare the maps of first half july 16 vs 17. Its no wonder Iowa set a record yield last year. There is a lot Iowa that is not "prime ground" that needs timely rains to be anywhere near last years yields.
Looking at the next 4 states Ill may have a decent year, many dry pockets still and some areas stuffering from to wet in spring. The usda has it rated 7 points behind last year, Maybe Ill pulls off a good year but can't see how they could have a record crop on the way. Nebraska the 3rd biggest production is 10 points off avg. with a lot of above normal temps. Indiana has over half the state rated fair to very poor, Ohio not much better. That only leaves MN as the last key production state to really pull off a record year and its in the same boat as Iowa with the east half in good shape but the key areas in the SW are in dire need of a good rain to keep things going. I just don't see the I states carrying the weight of the West this year. Maybe if all the south eastern states pull of some phenomenal yields it can offset the Dakotas...
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