Corn.. "It's not where the puck has been it's where it's going..'

Okay 2016 was a record crop.. 15 + byn bushels.. the market already knows this..  Prices are below cop and producers say they are gonna dump corn and plant more beans..  A survey out last week.. farm futures.. I guess said more beans than corn for the first time in.. awhile..??

Now we've had four big crops in a row.. from 2013 on.. Bigger than any that we have raised before..



 Here he goes.. killing the crop again.. it is amazing how well we can overcome adversity..  We've done it on acres..



and yield..



What usually happens.. like this year.. again.. is that we get a little too smug with out trend.. like this one above.. it seems pretty high as it would project above 170 before we even PLANT the crop.

Just the simple average 147.2, 123.1, 158.8, 171.0, 168.4 and now 174.6 = 157.18

Okay so we're probably NOT going to have another 2012.. throw that one out and your at 164.

I could see starting at 168.. can we do 170+ again.. yes.. could it end up under 162.. also possible.  We do know that at some point we will see another hic-cup in production..

That run from 1998 through 2009 was extrodinary that was a SOLID period.. but.. again look at the 1980's.. It may not come in 2017.. but my plan is not to price any more corn below $4.00  If i don't see that later this summer on a weather rally.. I'll just deliver any carry over on my 2017 contracts (which are over $4.00) and we'll see what 2018 brings.. 

"spread the valleys.. fill the peaks."

I want to go INTO the NEXT RALLY with my bins full of unpriced grain... then play the odds.