Posted 12/3/2016 16:11 (#5673472 - in reply to #5673082) Subject: RE: US $$$/Ruble and Double 00 Beans
Buxton ND
Alberta Farmer - 12/3/2016 12:11
Sat I know we will never convince you of this but a falling currency is a very short term stimulus to a market. The market participants still have to purchase goods in the real world real world currency. The wages the inputs the rents all adjust To the new reality and you are back to where you started. Feels good for a short while though just like any drug (so I'm told).
Nope Alberta you will not convince me. Why ? Because is LONG TERM stimulus not short, I have history backing me whether anyone likes it or not. Here's a long term US $$$ chart
Look at the move mid 1980 til the the start of 1985 a LONG term major move higher in the US $$$
Strong $$$, weak other world currencies just the way it work. I do not think I need to remind anyone what happened back in the 1980's
Fast forward in this chart to next strong move higher starting in 1995 continuing til early very early 2003 (again a LONG TERM move higher) The average 4 year ZC price, year ended 2004 was a shocking 2.01 So when the US $$$ was in the 100 plus range corn price fed on hind teat. So tell me again why the US $$$ doesn't make any difference ? ? ? That Btw that 2.01 is right on the money, you do not need any fancy dancy USDA/RMA who evers research to figure that 2.01 out all you need to a long term monthly chart and its so easy a cavemen or "Even A Norweigin can do it" So who's wants to tell NAT how I'm figuring that 2.01 ? ? ? NOT doing this in disrespectful, not doing this to be a smart donkey doing this to make you think and LEARN. I know there are guy that want to learn in here :o) I say guys because no farmer gals have emailed me ! ! !
ITS NOT just the strength of the US $$$***** Its just as much the weakest of other currencies***** giving those country's strong prices in THEIR dollars. Strong prices = MORE acres and MORE production = MORE export competition for the US in the exporting game. Point in case IS WHEAT that's why I used Russia and their Ruble. My Lord guys wheat is the cheapest futures price since July 2006 Toss in the horrible basis and you gotta go back a few years more. So try telling the US wheat growers the US Dollar doesn't make any different.
Beans its the US $$$ vs the Real/Juan, which are both in the crash and burn mood. The Real trades on the futures board with the Juan being set daily by China's Uncle Sam
US $$$/Ruble and Double 00 Beans
