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southern minnesota | A 155 bushel yield seems very realistic looking at the 10 year average. However, looking at the chart Don posted it doesn't seem nearly as likely.
A 155 bushel yield would put us about 10 bushels below trend for 2016. Based on this chart, we have been 10 bushels or more below trend 5 out of the last 40 years and only 1 year in the last 20.
How about a 160 yield? That puts us 5 below trend. It happened in 9 out of the last 40 years and only 3 years in the last 20.
IMHO we need at least 5 bushels under trend to be around $4.25 DEC contract in October. I do think (Hope!) we see a spring/summer weather rally but I will be selling it more aggressively than in the past if it comes.
Please don't shoot.......I'm just calling it as I see it.
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Weather Scare
