LKM - 3/2/2016 21:45

the thing you gotta think about is, it's not just our carry out that needs to be looked at. We have built world stocks back up to very comfortable levels.

Should we have a weather issue this year, that significantly reduces USA crop, we can ration exports down to practically nothing with not nearly as severe a price point that we would have needed for the past 4-5 years.

the prices we are seeing right now are with a well known 100 yr drought occurring in South Africa, a corn growing region of some note.

the price of inputs has dropped significantly from last year, to which I don't really see any decrease in acres, barring weather of course.

Weather trumps all, but with even remotely normal growing season I think we knock 50+ cents off this market by fall.

On this farm, we are sold 75% of our best crop for 16. 50% for 17 and 25% for '18