Sometimes we put TOO MUCH analysis into a Market.. mostly Markets just do what they do... yes participant actions matter.. but generally those who have bins.. (like us..) are gonna store.. Those who normally sell at harvest.. are gonna sell..  If the funds make $$$ shorting commodities.. then that will make up for the years that it doesn't work..

.. maybe we worry about things that don't matter so much?

I worked at a country elevator for about 3 years.. I was the grain merchandiser for a mom and pop single elevator facility.  Near the end of my tenure I wanted to find out who did the best job.. so I ranked the average prices recieved by producers..  Was it the guys who sold early and replaced with calls?  The forward contractors? etc...  The guys who subscribed to marketing services and spent a lot of time on marketing?

Nope.. It was a Grandpa that didn't care..  You could tell him with 100% certaintude that the markets were going to go down and it didn't faze him.  "Ya'll young bucks haven't lived through the 1930's when they closed the banks.. etc.."  Again it was a different time.. A big Wheat rally for the year was like $.30 or maybe $.50.. mostly sat on loan rates.

Anywho.. we got a late winter rally one year (I know needed a longer data set..still..) and guess who was one of the few who still had inventory to reward it?  Yipper Grandpa.

That lesson has stuck with me ever since..  ya just got to put yourself in a position to be VERY tight FISTED.. which has guided my marketing.. nope I don't get the highs.. don't have the sexiest marketing plans.. Just bat the birdie back over the net.. most years.. and "hang around."

This goes along with what the patriarch friend of the family always said about farming in Kansas..  "5.6.. years you lose $$$.. a couple you breakeven.. and in the final 2 or 3 you make enough to see you through the next decade..."  And I believe he is correct.

Fortunately I had most of my corn crop unsold by Fall of 2012.. and regardless of all the mistakes that I made up to that point.. but I delivered ALOT of $8 corn.. and healed up pretty quick.

Do I see $8 corn again EVER in my lifetime?  Honestly.. probably not... but still.. Sat is correct.. we will have rallies.. and when they come.. no doubt they will be unexpected.. and the farmer will probably be out of inventory.. but they will come.

Just got to keep plugging away until the sun comes out again.

Now that being said.. I do agree that this could be a long dry spell until the next demand pop shows up.. yada yada yada.. the world got the carrot.. yipper.. apparently so.. still our day will come...

.. and if it doesn't. I'll always thunk it should have.

Later.