|
Buxton ND | NO not drinkin, from below,
"I think you're looking at it backward.
High prices fueled production and squelched demand.
Low prices will stimulate demand and squelch production.
Right now we are discovering who can produce grain the cheapest. They are the ones who will be left to enjoy the next runup in prices. Unfortunately there is still a lot of money floating around out there so it's going to take a few years of these prices or lower to discover the efficient producers"
This right here pretty much sums it up guys and gals.
We've been here done this before in the 1970's and a few prior doom/bust cycles.
I see NO reason for it to be any different this time around because history was proven this is the way it works. ETHANOL WILL NOT MAKE IT DIFFERENT.
Now the good part.
WE WILL HAVE RALLIES, we're not gonna go down forever. How each one of us responses to these rallies going forward will be key. If you wanna get all $5-6 bullish on the first weather scare to each his own. Just remember how bullish "the most" got in NAT this past summer then think of your emotions now ?
IMO the biggest deal we're facing right now is hedge pressure from producers selling grains and an environment where the spec money is not there to take the long side.
Money flows,
ZW -94k net short and a new long all time record, what I've seen on my trip wheat is like 99% looks like AstroTurf
KE -7k new short flat actions since.
MWE -3k net short, flat to a tad bullish, I read someone's dangling the carrot.
ZC -25k net short and they've been selling since Tuesday.
ZS -19k net short, dido corn selling comments.
This thyme is net short, it has been a thyme of net short for quite someone time.. Traders NEED A REASON TO BUY BACK THEIR SHORTS*****
Corn was net short -82k on 1-12-2016 with price 3.63
-25k from above Tuesday with price 3.67
So we had a small short covering rally,,,,, in 6 weeks and corn's gone no where.
IMVSO, very strong opinion,,,,, producer hedge pressure is more then counter acting the spec money short covering buying.
With that if you've sold grain in the last months and are thinking about re-owning. Options are dam buying a ZCU16 are dam cheap right now to keep you in the game given a summer rally if you've sold because of cash flow needs. | |
|
WE WILL HAVE RALLIES !!!
