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over taxed nebraska | Listened to Marci Rossel at CoBank Midwest annual meeting Friday.
a nutshell: America has the best reputation for money investment. China has 20% non performing loans, not the 2% that they claim, still want to eat meat but at substantially lower price. low oil price helps everyday American consumer and they are putting money back into economy rather than saving it, young people don't save.
$30 dollar/barrel oil too low, will probably settle out near $50 and be there for a decade and become very stagnant. all commodities have very little chance to rally significantly and this is a long cycle not short cycle.
question was asked "how far down will ag land fall " she stated it has fell 1.6% and 25% is fairly likely and 50% would be an anomaly.
80's comparison: now 12.8% debt/asset ratio, 80's 40% ratio. banks are not in trouble and are very watchful not to let themselves get there. 40% is very bad.
India is the next emerging country, but it will take decades of slow rise.
my take: she was in tune with the financials of ag, but Im not sure she realizes the high input difference between now and then that will not go away in a big way..... i.e. taxes, seed and machinery. she is seeing the macro side but not sure on the upfront expense situation | |
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CoBank economist presentation friday
