| kyfarmr - 11/30/2015 17:21 Jpartner, You've piqued my curiosity with your basis chart work. Have you had much success at getting ahead of the trend? Maybe the better question would be can you get ahead of a counterseasonal move? I followed your charting using Andrews forks and wonder if you can be as accurate with basis as you are/have been with futures. Wouldn't basis be much more local/regional in nature? What works for you in Iowa would be much different than here in Ky. Like I said, just curious. Thanks Hi kyfarmr, This is something relatively new to me - at least realtime. Basis was something I was oblivious too til recent years, and thanks to Maize and others, I have began to study and understand it more. So, in recent months, I purchased the cash bid history from two end users, including the one that essentially determines the price of all of eastern Iowa in one shape or another. This data is better than 18 years of history. Admittedly, I am a believer in the concept of price movement being energy stored and released, and I know that everything that fluctuates can be predicted with the use of the tools we use, but I was a skeptic in this case. Basis, IMHO, is a subjective price and I figured it there would likely be very little we can get from it other than ideas of where historical resistance and support has been. I was about to be proven wrong. After going back through the data and studying the swings using the tools that we use, there is no doubt in my mind, that the energy stored and released in the basis values is no different than a futures chart, and can be exploited. Time and time again, price stalled and reversed precisely where is was projected to go with high certainty. Hopefully that helps. Take Care |
For the guys capturing basis and carry: Your daily market routine?
