I agree with Old Mcdonald on most points.

The discussion in this thread revolves around money. Chicken houses, integrators, startup costs, renovations, etc.

In chicken, money can increase/decrease/control the supply fairly quickly.

In crops, higher prices can cause a dramatic increase in supply, shift in planting intentions etc in one year.  Chickens lay eggs, hogs have many pigs per year. Both chicken and pork supplies can expand quickly within a year.

Look at the thread on this page on cull cow prices.  There are no "cull cows" in chickens. No selling of the "factory".

Cow/calf is DIFFERENT! More money can not increase the supply of calves very quickly. In fact more money for cull cows tends to slow any increase.

It is a real gamble to retain a heifer calf, losing the income from that calf, breed her next summer, calve her out the next summer, sell her calf the following fall or spring, maybe replacing the income lost by retaining the original heifer, then finally producing an additional calf and income in year 4 or 5....

If the average age of cow/calf operators is around 60, how many are willing to gamble on retaining a heifer for a possible increase in herd size in 4 or 5 years?

Most ag markets are price/money driven.   Cow/calf is BIOLOGY driven.  Higher prices actually dampen any potential supply increase by making cow culling attractive and heifer retention a gamble.

I don't think calf prices will go straight up because there is going to be some consumer price resistance at some point. Prices may not increase at the same rate indefinitely. However I don't see how we can have a"bubble" in cow/calf. 

Calf prices will likely level at some higher, producer-profitable point, but cow/calf biology will restrict any dramatic supply increase which would lead to a price decline.

No matter how high calf/feeder prices go, there can be no dramatic, quick, increase in supply.  In cattle, biology and nature for once trump money and the board.

jmho.

Jim