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NE ND | I think a weather event even half as bad as 2012 would get us back close to $5 corn if not higher. In 2012 we planted 97 million acres, and harvested 87 million. In 2015 we planted 89 million acres, and harvested 80.7 million. Even if we planted the same amount of acres as we did last year (which I don't think will happen, I think we'll be a couple million lower), and have HALF the weather event that we did in '12, so we combine roughly 80 million acres at 145, we end up with 11.6 billion bushels. Average the last 3 years total use at around 13.5-13.6 billion bushels, and pretty soon our carryout completely disappears. All of our domestic use would eat up the '16 crop, and that doesn't count for any exports, which would eat away the rest of the carryout.
I'm not banking on a weather event at all, but even a below trendline yield (not a complete disaster), gets rid of our carryout pretty quickly. I just have a hard time seeing us producing one of the 4th record yields in a row.
Edited by gthompson97 3/2/2016 20:49
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Weather Scare
