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Mascoutah, Illinois | I was wondering how one would assess crop conditions at the same time frame of two crop years and come up with a yield?
This was my math and I am not saying by any means it is correct or the correct way to interpret numbers.
2014 (Last week of June) Corn was 55% Good to Excellent and 20% Excellent giving us 75% of the crop in these two tiers.
2015 (Last week of June) Corn was 54% Good to Excellent and 14% Excellent giving us 68% of the crop in these two tiers.
If I divide 68% by 75%, I get a percentage of 90.7%
Applying the 2014 National Yield of 171bpa times 90.7%, I get a current national yield of 155.10bpa at this juncture.
Soybeans:
2014 (Last week of June) Beans were 57% Good to Excellent and 15% Excellent giving us 72% of the crop in these two tiers.
2015 (Last week of June) Beans were 52% Good to Excellent and 11% Excellent giving us 63% of the crop in these two tiers.
If I divide 63% by 72%, I get a percentage of 87.5%. (Down 9 points overall from last year which is astounding to me.)
Applying the 2014 National Yield of 47.5bpa times 87.5%, I get a current national yield of 41.57bpa at this juncture.
My opinion and my opinion only is the corn number is probably short by a little bit. (3 or 4 bpa)
My bean number seems to be way off with the USDA calling for something in the 46bpa camp.
Any help on trying to decipher the numbers and applying them going forward would be appreciated. | |
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Help with assessing crop conditions, please?
