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Mascoutah, Illinois | If I use 2010 as a corn benchmark, DRUMROLL PLEASE!!!!
2015 corn condition last week of June
14% Excellent
54% Good
24% Fair
National Yield (To Be Determined) Note: ***Acres planted at 88.897 million***
2010 corn condition last week of June
19% Excellent
54% Good
19% Fair
National Yield 152.8bpa Note: ***Acres planted at 88.2 million***
I know it is only the end of June, but at this stage of the game are we in bigger trouble than anyone is assessing? (Still to be determined) Note the corn acres are very similar in these two crop years and the ratings are lower at this stage of the crop year versus 2010. Keep a very close eye on this!!! EDIT: My crop prediction (WAG) was 158.65bpa for 2015 using a number of different tools.
Soybeans: I wouldn't let you down
2015 crop ratings the last week of June
11% Excellent
52% Good
28% Fair
National Yield (To Be Determined) Note: ***Acres intended to be planted is 85.13 million***
2010 crop ratings the last week of June
14% Excellent
53% Good
24% Fair
National Yield of 43.5bpa Note: ***Acres planted was 77.4 million***
These numbers are pretty similar in the soybean camp, however I don't believe it is painting the correct picture at this juncture. Why?
2014 conditions:
15% Excellent
57% Good
23% Fair
National Yield of 47.5bpa
As you can see, the 2014 bean crop had 95% of the crop "fair or better"
The 2010 bean crop had 91% fair or better (EDIT: so does the 2015 bean crop)
The difference in National Crop Yield was 47.5bpa in 2014 and 43.5bpa in 2010
To get a better picture of where we might be in 2015 in terms of national yield, I divided 91% by 95% and got 95.78%
I multiplied the 95.78% times last year's number of 47.5bpa which gives us an answer of 45.5bpa. (I feel this number is much closer than the one I had in my previous post.) If this number holds up along with my prediction of 2 million acres of PP, I get a crop of 3.747 billion bushels (83.139 seeded, 99.04% harvested, and 45.5bpa). (Obviously a long way to go from here especially in the bean camp.)
EDIT: The USDA is printing a bean crop of 3.879 billion bushels, I am at 3.747 billion bushels putting us 132 million bushels apart. (Like I said, quite a ways to go in the soybean camp.)
Edited by djmcountryboy 7/4/2015 01:44
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