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djmcountryboy
Posted 5/7/2021 17:00 (#8992525 - in reply to #8992427)
Subject: Ricefarmer


Mascoutah, Illinois
I look at it this way and it is just my opinion. Many folks have become accustomed to stimulus, PPP, Child Care Tax Credit, etc. I have numerous friends who are now in my best estimate living beyond their means based on what they had before. Inflation is running rampant due to the increased demand which is what the last administration and this one wanted to restart the economy due to the pandemic. Let's flash forward to next year.

Stimulus stops.
Inflation is here with higher food costs and fuel.
Folks go back to the workplace. (More money being spent in fuel for car, clothes for work, and now eating out instead of at home)
Kids go back to school everyday and are not at home. (Parents spending more money on school activities and hitting fast food places more frequently because of time constraints)

Results:
I believe the increased cost of living for folks will be significantly more with less capital at home. Purse strings will tighten and I believe the word recession will start to be thrown around at the end of the first quarter of 2022. Folks who are expecting a tax refund in 2022 in some cases are getting their entire refund this year with the accelerated tax credit if I am reading the legislation correctly. The country as a whole is going to have significantly less disposable money to spend. The stock market will cool off in response and folks may and will have to tighten spending even further.

I believe in 18-24 months, many opportunities will present themselves in numerous arenas. I would stay cash strong, not take on debt, and wait patiently.

The best analogy I can come up with is the government threw accelerates on a fire and the result was an inferno. You run out of or take way the accelerates and the inferno turns into a small fire.
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