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China and ethanol
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/27/2020 13:08 (#8143275 - in reply to #8142924)
Subject: Again per my spreadsheet.


We know that we ARE exporting Ethanol right now.. it's the high tide for the Year Seasonlly.. the Exports are delayed so that's why I run my spreadsheet..

Again..

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554  81339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958  85589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213  86629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149  87939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 21214987 1191.0111,514  89339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562  872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284  891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728  90359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 10283221 1043.9111,307  91869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697  94499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768  96969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674  88379.89% 
                      
19/20 MY 29 wks1032.7 902.8 13.5 22645.560% 141.7 991.74206.82819.31044.5106,530105,404 9130.79.89% 
18/19 MY 29 wks1028.2 904.1 4.2 23481.262% 119.7 838.23751.23172.01023.8106,064109,030 9099.29.94% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            466.0-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/190.4% -0.1% 2 -3.6%  18.3% 18.3%12.1%-11.1%2.0%0.4%-47,143bu lower0.3%-0.5% 
   -7.7%        estimatedReported      
 975 920 Last year24448.0yr ago   -16  970   912410.08% 

In order to BALANCE Production, stocks and Imports 196.4 k bbls/day went somewhere..  ???

This could have been in Transport.. 
Industrial usage (including Hand Sanitizer.. about 50% of Industrial is cosmetics..)
And exports.

The Actual Export numbers are lower than my implied disappearance probably due to Industrial usage.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 

 

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
  20103245191,1539734143876037079298349301,717
  20111,3641,4252,0032,8651,7431,6043,0361,2462,5252,8953,6344,117
  20121,8191,7851,9921,7751,3971,4101,5191,2061,1911,2849651,313
  20131,5181,0171,3129679527968301,1821,2991,2062,1341,525
  20142,0911,5172,0591,6591,2651,3781,5991,2921,3531,9492,1141,872
 
  20151,6401,6622,0571,7611,4971,4991,7161,2721,4921,7921,4271,995
  20162,2972,0272,6142,9221,6281,2951,9552,1792,3462,9463,0742,583
  20172,8443,6053,0232,1152,8622,2972,8222,2852,0112,4882,5654,175
  20182,5224,8385,5163,6752,2623,5852,4392,7982,3484,0783,4653,179
  20193,0482,7153,3353,5782,3753,0592,8632,9212,5402,6892,5583,490
 

My spreadsheet shows Implied disappearance up 18.3% year on year since Sept 1st.

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