| We know that we ARE exporting Ethanol right now.. it's the high tide for the Year Seasonlly.. the Exports are delayed so that's why I run my spreadsheet..
Again..
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1/3/2020 | 1062 | | 801 | | 0 | | 22,462 | 59% | | 57.0 | | 399 | | | 858.0 | 109,554 | | | 8133 | 9.85% | | 1/10/2020 | 1095 | | 854 | | 25 | | 23,006 | 61% | | 188.3 | | 1318 | | | 1042.3 | 112,958 | | | 8558 | 9.98% | | 1/17/2020 | 1049 | | 864 | | 0 | | 24,031 | 63% | | 38.6 | | 270 | | | 902.6 | 108,213 | | | 8662 | 9.97% | | 1/24/2020 | 1029 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,244 | 64% | | 125.6 | | 879 | | | 998.6 | 106,149 | | | 8793 | 9.93% | | 1/31/2020 | 1081 | | 888 | | 0 | | 23,474 | 62% | | 303.0 | | 2121 | 4987 | | 1191.0 | 111,514 | | | 8933 | 9.94% | | 2/7/2020 | 1033 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,358 | 64% | | 33.7 | | 236 | | | 906.7 | 106,562 | | | 8722 | 10.01% | | 2/14/2020 | 1040 | | 896 | | 0 | | 24,781 | 65% | | 83.6 | | 585 | | | 979.6 | 107,284 | | | 8918 | 10.05% | | 2/21/2020 | 1054 | | 902 | | 35 | | 24,718 | 65% | | 196.0 | | 1372 | | | 1098.0 | 108,728 | | | 9035 | 9.98% | | 2/28/2020 | 1079 | | 897 | | 0 | | 24,964 | 66% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | 3221 | | 1043.9 | 111,307 | | | 9186 | 9.76% | | 3/6/2020 | 1044 | | 919 | | 9 | | 24,334 | 64% | | 224.0 | | 1568 | | | 1143.0 | 107,697 | | | 9449 | 9.73% | | 3/13/2020 | 1035 | | 915 | | 0 | | 24,598 | 65% | | 82.3 | | 576 | | | 997.3 | 106,768 | | | 9696 | 9.44% | | 3/20/2020 | 1005 | | 874 | | 0 | | 24,140 | 64% | | 196.4 | | 1375 | | | 1070.4 | 103,674 | | | 8837 | 9.89% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19/20 MY 29 wks | 1032.7 | | 902.8 | | 13.5 | | 22645.5 | 60% | | 141.7 | | 991.7 | 4206.8 | 2819.3 | 1044.5 | 106,530 | 105,404 | | 9130.7 | 9.89% | | 18/19 MY 29 wks | 1028.2 | | 904.1 | | 4.2 | | 23481.2 | 62% | | 119.7 | | 838.2 | 3751.2 | 3172.0 | 1023.8 | 106,064 | 109,030 | | 9099.2 | 9.94% | | 15 byn target: | | 978.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 466.0 | -3,626 | | | | | 19/20 vs 18/19 | 0.4% | | -0.1% | | 2 | | -3.6% | | | 18.3% | | 18.3% | 12.1% | -11.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | -47,143 | bu lower | 0.3% | -0.5% | | | | | -7.7% | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | | | 975 | | 920 | | Last year | 24448.0 | yr ago | | | | -16 | | | 970 | | | | 9124 | 10.08% | | In order to BALANCE Production, stocks and Imports 196.4 k bbls/day went somewhere.. ???
This could have been in Transport.. Industrial usage (including Hand Sanitizer.. about 50% of Industrial is cosmetics..) And exports.
The Actual Export numbers are lower than my implied disappearance probably due to Industrial usage.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | |
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,312 | 967 | 952 | 796 | 830 | 1,182 | 1,299 | 1,206 | 2,134 | 1,525 | 2014 | 2,091 | 1,517 | 2,059 | 1,659 | 1,265 | 1,378 | 1,599 | 1,292 | 1,353 | 1,949 | 2,114 | 1,872 | | 2015 | 1,640 | 1,662 | 2,057 | 1,761 | 1,497 | 1,499 | 1,716 | 1,272 | 1,492 | 1,792 | 1,427 | 1,995 | 2016 | 2,297 | 2,027 | 2,614 | 2,922 | 1,628 | 1,295 | 1,955 | 2,179 | 2,346 | 2,946 | 3,074 | 2,583 | 2017 | 2,844 | 3,605 | 3,023 | 2,115 | 2,862 | 2,297 | 2,822 | 2,285 | 2,011 | 2,488 | 2,565 | 4,175 | 2018 | 2,522 | 4,838 | 5,516 | 3,675 | 2,262 | 3,585 | 2,439 | 2,798 | 2,348 | 4,078 | 3,465 | 3,179 | 2019 | 3,048 | 2,715 | 3,335 | 3,578 | 2,375 | 3,059 | 2,863 | 2,921 | 2,540 | 2,689 | 2,558 | 3,490 | |
My spreadsheet shows Implied disappearance up 18.3% year on year since Sept 1st. |