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Ol’ Wisco | Purely anecdotal but here 1 out of our 3 plants has said no more grind till fall. The other 2 have both said they are going to idle throughput drastically and may possibly stop their grind for an extended period if margins do not improve.
The estimates in the link are for only Mar-May. Wven Irwin said these are very fluid numbers. Two big if’s 1) no one actually knows how much surface fuel demand has fallen. We have no historical gauge of the demand effects of the worldwide economy coming to such a sudden stop. 2) The oil situation is a hot geopolitical trigger. The Saudis were reported to have said sub $15 crude would not alter their plans.
The virus is salt in the wound. Ethanol margins were running at approximately -20% bc of oil.
WASDE was calling for an approximate 1% increase in the grind as of Mar. How it all shakes out is anyone’s guess but I would proceed with extreme caution of extensive downside risk.
Edited by thereaper 3/27/2020 12:59
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