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Weekly Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 3/25/2020 12:52 (#8137836)
Subject: Weekly Ethanol update.


Okay.. So it's only one week in.. and plants are still adjusting.. so Read this with a Grain of Salt.

Here Goes..

Production was down 30 k bbls this week at 1,005 k bbls per day.. but higher than Last Year's 975 k bbls /day this week (SRE's)  For the Crop Year to Date (since Sept 1st) we are UP 0.4% at 1,032.7 vs Last year's 1028.2.

On the Ethanol blended.. down to 874 k bbls per day vs 920 last year so down 46 k bbls/day.. Crop year to date down a smidge at 902.8 vs 904.1.

Implied Exports (and Hand Sanitizer.. lol) MORE than makes up for the Loss in Blended Gasoline (so far.. and yes it could be lost to transit..??) at 196.4 k/bbls per day up 18.3% Year on Year. 

WASH YOUR HANDS!!  lol..

So TOTAL Ethanol Disappearance since Stocks went DOWN 458 k bbls was UP to 1,070.4 k bbls/day  Year to date is UP 2% at 1044.5 k bbls/day vs 1023.8 k bbls/day last year.

Gasoline Blended Fell biggly to 8,837 k bbls/day.. putting the blend RATE at 9.89% matching the year to date average 9.89% vs 9.94% last year.. Remember we WON the Lawsuit against the SRE's those parties are challenging but not the EPA!!

We probably got some more rough water to row through before we reach the other side.. unless exports kick in.. to China?
Watching what The Tx RR Commission does... and locking in Fuel needs.. for the next three years.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
9/6/20191023 930 0 22,49959% 279.0 1953  1209.0105,531  98079.48% 
9/13/20191003 905 11 23,23861% 3.4 24  908.4103,467  893910.12% 
9/20/2019943 935 113 22,50059% 226.4 1585  1161.497,278  934610.00% 
9/27/2019958 923 0 23,21961% -67.7 -47430882540855.398,825  913710.10% 
10/4/2019963 917 0 21,22456% 331.0 2317  1248.099,341  94609.69% 
10/11/2019971 942 0 22,06158% -90.6 -634  851.4100,166  935410.07% 
10/18/2019996 928 28 21,36456% 195.6 1369  1123.6102,745  95909.68% 
10/25/20191004 936 53 21,09956% 158.9 1112416426891094.9103,571  97849.57% 
11/1/20191014 917 0 21,87458% -13.7 -96  903.3104,602  914510.03% 
11/8/20191030 940 0 20,98555% 217.0 1519  1157.0106,253  932110.08% 
11/15/20191033 929 4 20,51454% 175.3 1227  1104.3106,562  919210.11% 
11/22/20191059 930 36 20,27753% 198.9 1392  1128.9109,244  920410.10% 
11/29/20191060 902 11 20,63954% 117.3 821486325581019.3109,347  90329.99% 
12/6/20191072 858 66 21,81558% 112.0 784  970.0110,585  88829.66% 
12/13/20191064 912 0 21,79857% 154.4 1081  1066.4109,760  94119.69% 
12/20/20191083 938 0 21,46957% 192.0 1344  1130.0111,720  930310.08% 
12/27/20191066 884 0 21,03455% 244.1 1709491834901128.1109,966  89619.86% 
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554  81339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958  85589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213  86629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149  87939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 21214987 1191.0111,514  89339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562  872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284  891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728  90359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 10283221 1043.9111,307  91869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697  94499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768  96969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674  88379.89% 
                      
19/20 MY 29 wks1032.7 902.8 13.5 22645.560% 141.7 991.74206.82819.31044.5106,530105,404 9130.79.89% 
18/19 MY 29 wks1028.2 904.1 4.2 23481.262% 119.7 838.23751.23172.01023.8106,064109,030 9099.29.94% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            466.0-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/190.4% -0.1% 2 -3.6%  18.3% 18.3%12.1%-11.1%2.0%0.4%-47,143bu lower0.3%-0.5% 
   -7.7%        estimatedReported      
 975 920 Last year24448.0yr ago   -16  970   912410.08% 

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm

 

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