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How to find value in options...
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 6/12/2019 18:00 (#7555418 - in reply to #7555359)
Subject: RE: How to find value in options...

South Central Iowa
Thanks, I enjoy words. Wonky is used a lot, I didn’t mean you misused it, just that it is generally. It will come to mean an expert on policy and politics eventually. People don’t like using expert in those realms because the ideas change rapidly, it’s not like knowing a specific science or art where the knowledge, skill, or technique is static or evolves slowly. How can one be an expert on a policy proposal? It could be different tomorrow, so he follows it and the changes and is called a wonk.

I didn’t see it when you made it, but looked it up. Was it directed at me?

I can make hair-brained ideas without alcohol, lol. I actually gained a lot of respect for USDA in their major cut to yield. I had my yield model that was meant to mimic what they should input and it said 166 as well. So they followed their methodology and did not avoid adjustment just because it was shocking. I also liked that they lowered acres, reflecting reality. A lot of the trade didn’t think they would, even though the trade knew it would eventually.

I’ve only paid attention to USDA reports for four years or so. They have almost always been bearish in that time, so I needed to see them make the proper adjustments when it came time that they needed to, and they did do that.

I’d still be critical they cut usage too much for the price they suggest and where we are, that’s being too anticipatory in my opinion. I also thought they should have adjusted soybean downward somewhat as well, but not a terribly big deal there.
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