Posted 6/12/2019 18:39 (#7555484 - in reply to #7555418) Subject: RE: How to find value in options...
No it wasn’t directed at you at all. After I posted it I thought “I hope the people who take a balanced approach to yield guesses and things of that nature don’t take that wrong.”
I personally think the statisticians at the USDA likely being some math nerd that has never seen a soybean field let alone a plant is a benefit to the market as a whole. That means to them it’s just math and statistics. As soon as that person has an understanding of agronomy/farming/production and they try to dictate the math bc of that, it becomes far to subjective. Between that and the sheer amount of data they have to work with that’s probably what make them the closest guess. I don’t think they are always right, but definitely the closest we have to work with currently.