iowa | doathlon - 6/3/2019 19:00
2 reasons.....
The first is that it's a slow build in a weather disaster market, fireworks happen in August when USDA confirms the disaster. Look at the great drought of 2012 (least amount of rainfall across the U.S. Since the dust bowl of the 1930's) and that's what happened.
The second reason is that traders can't trade excess rain the same way they do drought because.........this has never happened before. I think the closest we've been to this year was 1993 and the yield but wasn't confirmed to the market until the December report.
Finally........I predict the soybean plantings will end up farther behind than corn.
Actually in aug of 12 the market was on the way down. Fireworks were the June to late July timeframe . |
This is the black swan of the corn market for the past 80 years
