Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | We can blame the corn belt 2019 growing season climate for our bad luck this year. USDA has recorded years past where corn yields were way under trend yields, probably more so than they will be this year. Corn belt growing season climate yield models have predicted yield outcomes with less error than USDA's early predictions.
Attached screen snap compares US corn yield predictions for a climate yield model with USDA's final reported yields for the most recent 59 years. Standard deviation of that climate model error is 4 bushels/acre. It uses NOAA reported US corn belt 3 month climate for May-Jul of each year in the 59 year data series.
 (Screenshot from 2019-05-21 22-34-36 (full).png)
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 Screenshot from 2019-05-21 22-34-36 (full).png (93KB - 33 downloads)
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Been doing some deep thinking.
