Posted 4/14/2019 18:48 (#7439425) Subject: Rain makes grain
Historically, what years have too much rain caused lower national production?
I assume it has only been the years where it was too wet early and too dry late but I don't know the history from a nation wide perspective.
I guess I'm just thinking about my road trip to buy equipment last year in Southern MN. At the time I had not been paying attention to weather nationwide and didn't even realize it was sopping wet up there.
The first 8 hours of the 10 hour trip were in the daylight and I saw nothing but beautiful crops the whole way. The last two hours were in the dark and I missed some stuff that had too much rain.
Since I had not seen the super wet spots (and really, even if I had), it really sobered me up. Made me question whether I should be buying more equipment because it squashed any hopes I had of a rally to sell more corn.
I got ripped pretty good when I posted about it on NAT though. NW IA and Southern MN guys were tired of looking at their drowned out spots and were pretty sensitive to my comments even though they were not intended to indicate they did not have problems. I figured on a marketing board people might like to hear how beautiful the crop looked in the majority of the areas so they could plan accordingly.
Next day I saw the drowned out stuff in MN and to a lesser degree, IA. Yeah, it wasn't going to be record breaking but it also didn't look as bad as what I was reading on NAT. Reading NAT I would have thought the southern half of MN and the Northern half of IA and the Northeast 1/4 of NE would only yield half of their normal yields but somehow even the most severely affected counties in Southern MN yielded about 75% of 2017 which is about what I expected after the second day of the drive.
This isn't to minimize what extreme Southern MN and Northern IA went through. 75% of expected yield is really painful. Probably took some weaker hands out. I feel really bad for that area.
I guess what I'm saying is, in spite of all of this rain, is there really any reason for concern? Can we realistically bet on higher prices because of too much moisture?
I guess I feel, from a weather perspective, unless we get a late season drought, the price risk is down because of all of the available moisture. I really feel like betting that too much rain will cause a significant rally is a suckers bet. As usual I'm wishing I was more heavily sold than I am and am considering selling more.