I think your graph above is disengenious.. 


Current Brazilian estimates are around 112 to 115 mmt's with the Feb Wasde at 117 mmts

Other estimates have Pauraguay down 30% from last year's 9.8 mmt crop

and even Argentina's latest estimate is 2 mmt's below the WASDE at 55.. although others are above..??

All told.. South American production set a record 2 years ago.. missed it last year due mainly to Argy's 37.8 mmt crop vs 54 mmt forecast by WASDE at this time a year ago..

Soybean prices have fallen.. even in Brazil.. and yet they must build massive infrastructure.. it currently takes a truck.. a week.. to make the round trip from the hinter soy lands.. (which you would expand further away) to the ports and back.. down mostly paved roads.. that were supposed to be completed a decade plus ago.. and some day.. there's gonna be a railroad.. the famous North/South line through Matto Grosso.. that's been promised since the 1980's..

.. someday.

Can it be done?  Well if $15 soybeans didn't do it.. how are $9 gonna make it more feasible?

South America will beat it's record from 2 years ago.. NOT this year.. but weather and modest expansion will make it so.. but it's doubtful that it's gonna go parabolic.. as your chart shows.. peaking near $18 cme in 2012.. we are half that value today.. and that's gonna be a stiff headwind to what you claim..

jmho

expansion?  Yes..  Double production.. maybe in 100 years..