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| JC, I don't post over here a whole lot but read about everything on the marketing page. I think JP's and the others that follow his way of thinking are looking at the market in pure way without bias. The problem with basing marketing off fundamentals is, by the time fundamentals are known the move is already done most of the time. Look at the sales to China recently market showed strength for no apparent reason then when sales were announced market drops. If you were trading by carryout market should be alot lower but it is not. The biggest problem today is there is so much computing power that all fundamentals are pretty much lagging indicators anymore. USDA reports used to trigger limit moves quite often in the past. When is the last time he have had a limit move too much information is available to the big traders. I think going forward the most successful people will be the group that looks at price only with a very strict set of rules based on probabilities. Plus knowing your breakevens and making sales above them when it is offered. All markets are an expression of human emotion. Thats why certain techniques can be 80% accurate because it is a expression of people doing what they do. Successful people are not right all the time they are just right more then they are wrong. | |
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FarmerOhio
