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Ontario's middle east | Good points Chief. Pretty easy even for this ugly old bear to buy in to the drought possibility right now. The reality is nobody knows how that will play out. Maybe it means disaster? Maybe we roll early and jack corn acres then timely rains come and we knock the skin off the ball.... among other things.... Nobody knows. What we do know is unknowns tend to put risk premium back into markets and that is the process now. Hearing lots of folks say they are buying into my seasonal mantra and are just gonna wait until June and sell the rally like they should of the last few years. Watch out that isn't too late. Planting weather has created those opportunities the last few years. My old friend Soyroy says always sell some new crop corn May 1. If things go well, risk premium will be extracted from then on. Now he might be totally wrong on that but as usual I will suggest we might be better making a bunch of little mistakes this spring, rather than a big one come summer. We put a little more cz8 on at 3.97 the other day. That is about 20c from cz7 high. If we can incrementally avg up from there it won't be bad. Pretty sure 3.97 would buy lots of old crop, why not new? It's like Ray says "Do you know what you want or is it just more?" I think one needs to think about the "what ifs" of your scenario and where does that leave their business and their family, then proceed accordingly. If another year of sub $3.50 harvest corn will have an impact on those things, it's time to take action IMO. Time will tell. | |
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$7.50 Corn???
