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Yield Estimates..Some one is watching your crop everyday
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mj_sker
Posted 7/20/2017 20:48 (#6139091 - in reply to #6139018)
Subject: RE: Yield Estimates..Some one is watching your crop everyday


The Far East...of Nebraska.
I don't disagree that it's probably better, but you me and everyone else can tell you the usda # is wrong, but it's what we trade. It's why it matters. So if you know crops are going to drought out and put your eggs into that basket, and they in fact are soon going to drought out, but usda says at the time of the their #'s being made things were ok. And that's what we trade. And the market adopts a wait and see approach. Will ai make your margin calls? That's the problem here, the usda doesn't even have to try to be right. Yea sometimes the market doesn't trade the usda number, but sometimes it does.

Is it worth it to be right and broke? I ask myself that a lot when marketing.

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