AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

The board/cash disconnect.
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Stock TalkMessage format
 
Jim
Posted 6/22/2014 23:58 (#3932632 - in reply to #3932089)
Subject: RE: The board/cash disconnect.


Driftless SW Wisconsin

buford - 6/22/2014 19:11 Danged if I know the answer to that, Garvo. Does anybody remember if it was the same situation when it happened with the hogs? Any similarities?

As we have discussed here before, cattle are very, very different from hogs.  How many pigs does a sow have? How many litters per year?

The cattle cycle is just different from hogs and chickens.

The USA cow herd numbers have been going down for many years.  Demand from around the world is up.

High prices paid for heifers and cull cows are likely going to slow any reversal of the herd number decline.  Drought in key cattle areas also a factor.

I personally don't think packers have any mysterious evil plan, (at least in this regard), they are just trying to find raw material for their packing plants.

When a small producer like me gets approached to raise more cattle for a coop while waiting in line to unload at a processor, there is just a shortage of product.  The paper feeders on the board just can not change the basics of the cattle cycle.

Also as discussed here, it takes 4 or 5 years from the decision to retain a heifer calf before there is a net increase in the beef supply.  Nothing that happens on the board can change that biology regardless of price. 

The cash price will increase and reflect the competition for the limited supply of real, not paper, feeders.

jmho.

Jim



Edited by Jim 6/23/2014 00:01
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)