Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I'be been thinking along those same lines myself as we follow futures prices in the run up to the March Reports. You are correct, here anyways the basis penalty for new crop corn is more than twice that of new crop soybeans when the price ratio is taken into account. Add on the difference in production costs and the facts that I can plant beans twice as fast as corn with a third the fertilizer, fuel and labor. What this tells me is that either soybeans are priced too high or corn is priced about 80 cents a bushel too low.
Plus the fact that today , the 26th of March the temperature is 20 F, a cold wind from the northwest makes it feel like 0 F and the ground froze down 2 feet. It'll be all of 3-4 weeks just to get the ground thawed & dried out, say nothing of warm enough to plant corn. Every so many years we get a really cool summer and corn just doesn't do well for the lack of heat units. Soybeans tolerate the cool better, not great but better than corn.
But we know that when the report comes out with 81 million acres of soybeans, new crop beans will likely drop at least a dollar maybe more.
This might just be the year to make the safe play, book all my beans at $11.85 plus, send some of that corn seed back, get some more bean seed and plant a supply buffer.
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No corn on this farm for first time in history
