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Ontario's middle east | I hesitate to post this while Sats got the rope and turpentine out but someone's gotta say something nice today. The Brazil crop is indeed shrinking, a series of lower predictions. I now think we have that crop down to size that it is quite feasible for China to buy them up by this summer, like they did last year. I don't think the market will care about this until next summer but I'm starting to wonder if we are not going to see the same phenomena in the bean market that we have seen the last few years. We get out towards early Aug and the market has an "oh sheet" moment. It realizes that come fall the NA beans are the only game in town til Feb again. The weak carry new crop months realize they have to front end the exports and the market inverts like 20 cents in one day. We then go on to see a nice run in Nov futures getting a great pricing opportunity around Labor Day. The one major flaw in that plan would be huge US acres. I still subscribe to the idea that corn acres won't decline much. I guess I wonder if the acreage forecasts won't pick up on suggestions of more beans and then the corn / bean ratio respond to keep corn acres. We still needs lots of corn.
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Conab report
