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| I don't think the question is necessarily bull or bear. The question is whether we can get the 'amplitude' we had the last 5 years or not. When funds were buying corn like it was going away forever they also were in hogs. The hog action wasn't nothing like corn, but it did support the market in the 40's rather than let it tank further when we had swine flu (I never did check if actual consumer sales volume changed all that much, but the price sure did). Anyway, it doesn't appear that the funds have the same buying plan and, smartly, don't want to run the market up 50 cents every time they get in. Just like the big rebalancing that fizzled. It looks like a slow grind regardless of direction and for anyone farming longer than 5 years, we can resume getting excited about a 10 cent move in 2 weeks.
I'm super nervous about the S&P and DJ - these were indicators of actual economic activity now it's just an indicator of folks hard earned 401K and IRA money flying in and out of markets. I'm guessing funds like equities better than commodities if they have a choice. Every trade makes somebody money btw. | |
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as we start losing bears
