With all the problems.. converting NASS to FSA.. etc.. (easier to convert 1 years data.. or try.. then to do 6!) Etc.. That's still a pretty nice chart and I think accurate representation of what went on.
I started a new thread above on the "ah-hah!" realization of the double cropping and how much that swings.. from 3 to 10%
aka.. 10 - 3 = 7% x 74 myn = 5.2 myn acre swing.. That's significant.. If prices fall below $11'ish.. minus basis.. hmm will that end double cropping?
Here in irrigated land NO Doubt! In Mizzou dryland double cropping land.. "probably not as much.." so...???
probably lose..?? 2 to 3 myn net falling from $13 beans down to $10'ish.. would be my guess. We'll see..
Oh and one other thing that I forgot.. 2005 was Katrina.. and the debacle down in NOLA.. where we were shipping corn back UP the Mississippi. We had $0.50 LDP's that fall and everyone went to beanies the next year.. 2006.. which probably skews this data a little bit.. but.. got to start somewhere.
Good enough.
Thanks.. kudo's to BShull for starting this also.
That really is a good chart.. mind if I bring that back up from time to time? Suppose we ought to make any other changes to it? I could dig out the Hay data.. Not sure what else we would need..??? |