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SW Saskatchewan | Kevin Hursh is a mouthpiece for hire as well as an ag commentator-so this may be flavored a little. But I feel he doesn't run much of a risk of being wrong on this one.
http://www.producer.com/2014/01/prices-are-down-belt-tightening-tim...
One thing that is different this year with the transportation fiasco is that previously the CWB had "nagging rights" to the railroads and being in control of all export wheat and barley, they could somewhat co-ordinate grain flows with railway capacity in their "discussions".
That is all gone now, as well as the CWB policy of nurturing American wheat prices-yes they sold into the US market but with concern that they did not want to depress American prices. US prices set the world price and if Canada knocked down the US price, we lostnot only on the bushels destined for the US but also on every other bushel we sold.
Consequence-western Canadian wheat has easy access by truck to US elevators and it is about our only export destination that is not rail dependent-expect the trucks to start heading south as soon as farmers start to worry about their May 1 mortgage payment (May 1 and Nov 1 being traditional mortgage due dates in Canada).
Havre Mt is our second closest elevator point and in past days people were known to haul the 90 miles with 2ton war surplus trucks over ungraded prairie trails. One neighbour has hauled several thousand bushels of high protein HRSW this year already but the elevator is conscious of not teeing off their American farmers so not much movement has occurred except for high protein.
But I expect if a desperate Canadian farmer was willing to sell at listed -50 that situation might change.
And some Canadian farmers are getting worried as the calendar moves on and spring breakup weight restrictions may only be 6 weeks away.
PS - is three dollar Corn really in the cards?
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HRSW
