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Ray Jenkin's Question.
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1234
Posted 1/20/2014 14:07 (#3619746 - in reply to #3619671)
Subject: RE: I don't but ....



Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow
I don't but to the first approximation it is. And it is at least a little intuitive. When stocks are low endusers pay more to guarantee access to future supplies. When stocks are plentiful they aren't so concerned and pay less. We just don't have enough data points to really characterize the relationship much more. By the time we get enough data point the whole relationship between price & demand and/or price& supply may have changed enough to make it different. Before ethanol we produced 9 billion bushel of corn for $2/bu. Today we produce 13+ for $4.40.
Sometimes we can get some insight into the workings of the world thru simple relationships. 400 years ago Newton thought about the relationship between force, mass and acceleration. He came up with a simple equation, Force=Mass x Acceleration. It has worked pretty well, got us to the Moon and back. A hundred years ago, now Einstein and others came up with better models of the world, It turns out that Newton's equation is an approximation of more sophisticated equations but it is still pretty useful.
You know what Einstein used to say: "Don't make it any more complicated than necessary." In fact the more complicated your theory is, the more likely it's wrong.

Edited by 1234 1/20/2014 14:21
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