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Ray Jenkin's Question.
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Pat H
Posted 1/20/2014 08:56 (#3619064 - in reply to #3616759)
Subject: RE:What about peak corn?


It's interesting how fast we change from talk of 'peak corn' to 'usage walls', but it makes perfect sense. End users may change buying patterns in response to price and availability, but changing the actual total amount demanded takes much more time.

Maybe it's over simplistic, but our tendency is to over produce and face that usage wall. Price falling to encourage more usage is a slow process (usually takes capital projects to make a significant change in demand).

While there could some places that, without a big insurance guarantee or big price, could go back to pasture or even fallow, most production areas would have a hard time making big changes to crop types or even idling acres. Part of it is just the unknown of yields and part of it is the same problem the demand side has - it takes significant capital changes (think switching in and out of cotton).

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