| edit add: for future reference my GUESTIMATE #'s in this first table (blue and Red colored) are WRONG!! (a little bit) the REAL numbers are in the table I post and linked below.. aka REAL F&R Q1 is 2,426..not my guestimated 2,415.
Golly 1234 you got me going again.. I pulled this table from this site http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds-feed-outlook/fds-13l.aspx table 1 from the December Feed outlook and adjusted it for the January WASDE numbers.. (hopefully correctly..) Now DO NOT TAKE THIS AS GOSPEL.. cause I may have missed something.. quick and dirty here but.. | Table 1--Feed grains: U.S. quarterly supply and disappearance (million bushels), 12/12/2013 | Commodity, market year,
and quarter 1/ | Beginning stocks | Production | Imports | Total supply | Food, seed, and industrial use | Feed and residual use | Exports | Total disappear-ance | Ending stocks | Farm price 2/
(dollars per bushel) | | Corn | 2010/11 | Sep-Nov | 1,708 | 12,447 | 5 | 14,160 | 1,582 | 2,069 | 452 | 4,103 | 10,057 | 4.30 | | Dec-Feb | 10,057 | | 8 | 10,065 | 1,577 | 1,562 | 403 | 3,542 | 6,523 | 5.07 | | Mar-May | 6,523 | | 10 | 6,534 | 1,638 | 715 | 510 | 2,864 | 3,670 | 6.01 | | Jun-Aug | 3,670 | | 4 | 3,673 | 1,628 | 453 | 465 | 2,546 | 1,128 | 6.51 | | Mkt yr | 1,708 | 12,447 | 28 | 14,182 | 6,426 | 4,799 | 1,830 | 13,055 | 1,128 | 5.18 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2011/12 | Sep-Nov | 1,128 | 12,360 | 4 | 13,491 | 1,612 | 1,826 | 406 | 3,844 | 9,647 | 5.87 | | Dec-Feb | 9,647 | | 4 | 9,651 | 1,640 | 1,543 | 444 | 3,627 | 6,023 | 6.06 | | Mar-May | 6,023 | | 11 | 6,034 | 1,626 | 859 | 401 | 2,886 | 3,148 | 6.34 | | Jun-Aug | 3,148 | | 11 | 3,159 | 1,551 | 328 | 291 | 2,170 | 989 | 7.02 | | Mkt yr | 1,128 | 12,360 | 29 | 13,517 | 6,428 | 4,557 | 1,543 | 12,528 | 989 | 6.22 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2012/13 | Sep-Nov | 989 | 10,780 | 35 | 11,804 | 1,468 | 2,082 | 221 | 3,771 | 8,033 | 6.87 | | Dec-Feb | 8,033 | | 48 | 8,080 | 1,435 | 1,082 | 163 | 2,681 | 5,400 | 6.95 | | Mar-May | 5,400 | | 40 | 5,440 | 1,567 | 922 | 185 | 2,674 | 2,766 | 7.04 | | Jun-Aug | 2,766 | | 40 | 2,806 | 1,573 | 249 | 162 | 1,982 | 824 | 6.67 | | Mkt yr | 989 | 10,780 | 162 | 11,932 | 6,044 | 4,335 | 731 | 11,108 | 821 | 6.89 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sep-Nov | 821 | 13,925 | 5 | 14,751 | 1,570 | 2,415 | 340 | 4,325 | 10,426 | | | 2013/14 | Mkt yr | 821 | 13,925 | 35 | 14,781 | 6,500 | 5,300 | 1,450 | 13,150 | 1,631 | 4.10-4.70 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
edit: colored all the changes I made in blue or red. Look at that Sep Nov line for 13/14.. and the HUGE FEED and RESIDUAL # for Q1 (and maybe I'm not doing it correctly..??) but chew on that for awhile.. I believe the previous Q1 Useage RECORD was 2010's 4,103.. (might have been 09..??) compare that to this year's 4,325.. Seriously..?? from 249 Q4 2012/13 F&R to 2,415 Q1 13/14.. ??? From 2,069 Q1 2010 F&R during the record Q1 usage year (unless it was 09?) to 2,415 Q1 13/14.. ????????????? I can buy.. 3,900.. or more.. add 200 to Quant = 4,100.. but 4,325..??? IF that number is lower.. then they HAD to overestimate the crop.. OR.. some of it is still in the field.. and/or we're gonna IMPORT more.. like the 162 we did last year from Maize land... ??? But we didn't do it in Q1... That 2,415 F & R number is PRETTY DANG BIG..!! But that is what it HAS to be to make their PRODUCTION number work with the Stocks. ??? What am I missing?
Edited by JonSCKs 1/18/2014 15:24
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Corn numbers.. 200 myn too high.
