If you think Feed and Residual is TOO HIGH.. well..

5,300 to whatever you want.. and take Crop size down the same.. fixes a lot of Problems.. like 4,300 RECORD Q1 useage...

What if it was only a 13,725 crop.. or less...???

.. Maybe I wasn't so wrong there either this summer...???

edit: as of right now.. I would put 200 into Quant "whatever" feeding.. exports.. chop Feed and Residual for 13/14 to 4,900 and chop the crop to 13,725.

Then 4,335 becomes 4,535 for last year.. but still reported ACCURATELY as 4,335 because you can't feed something that doesn't exist on paper.. like 13 crop in a 12 year.

Then 4,900 for F & R 13 is REALLY 4,700 actual.. but accounting shown as 4,900.

And Crop size of 13,725.. down 200.. 40 of which comes from Ks.. 520 down to 480.

4,300 Q1 Record usage goes to 4,100 which TIEs (??) the previous record...  ??? maybe a little closer to reality...???

but that's just me.. later.

one last edit add: admission.. they can do Quant feeding for the 14 crop in a 13 demand also... so not everything is bullish.. The Quant thing shows up because it's used before it exists on paper.. so it's not there in the analysts expectations come the Dec and March Stocks.. then we write it off.. and "poof" shows back up in September.. just like this year... ???

IF the SOUTH goes back to cotton or whatever.. then the Quant thing might not be as big.. I think we have a better handle on it this year.. cause enough of us are watching for it.. but it's tricky.. hiding with all the other normal errors that get buried in Residual... and it's nobody's fault.. certainly not USDA's.. it's just one of the quirks of accounting grain for the entire Country.. when some parts start harvesting sorghum in south Texas in July.. Corn in Late July early August.. and others don't finish Corn in North Dakota until.. well.. golly.. are you guys 100% done yet...???

It's nobodies fault.. it just is... like the Sun coming up in the east and sets in the West.. just is.