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Ethanol Exports.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/10/2014 19:58 (#3593602 - in reply to #3593509)
Subject: and.. the Other.. Trendline exports.


Here is the updated numbers with the new WASDE estimates where they upped the soybean exports to 1495 and wheat exports to 1125.  Oddly they left the corn exports alone.. lowered estimated Chinese Corn imports and raised the Chinese Corn crop.

All exports could be front loaded.. as this weeks added sales really didn't add much.  But it was the holidays and low sales are not uncommon.  This is just a simple analysis.. which "could be wrong" fwiw.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/wkHistData.htm

                   
  Soybeans    Corn          
  Total Shipments   Total Shipments        
1989 16.8     58.7          
1990 15.2     42.9          
1991 19     39          
1992 21.5     40.3          
1993 16.4     32.2          
1994 23.4     54.7          
1995 23.6     55.8     All Wheat   
1996 24.5     44.5     Total Shipments  
1997 24.5     37.2          
1998 22.9     49.6          
1999 27     48.8     25.5    
2000 27.6     47.7     25.8    
2001 29.9     48     24.1    
2002 29.1     39.9shipped   20.8    
2003 24.2  2-Jan  48.2 sales2-Jan  29.6  2-Jan 
2004 29.97    Booked 45.4    BookedAdd Ship 26.6    Booked
2005 25.5shipped   54.3     25.3shipped  
2006 30.3 sales   5418.911.530.423.6 22.9 sales  
2007 30.4   Add Ship59.9721.9718.540.4719.5 32.6   Add Ship
2008 33.9     45.213.67.721.323.9 26.0    
2009 39.619.712.532.27.4 48.314.211.225.422.9 21.712.43.716.15.6
2010 39.9922.113.735.84.19 45.214.511.826.318.9 33.417.98.326.27.2
2011 36.715.98.724.612.1 37.913.810.924.713.2 26.615.74.320.06.6
2012 36.222.28.931.15.1 186.76.112.85.2 26.313.65.719.37.0
2013  25.115.740.8   11.916.728.6   19.45.124.5 
      7.1975     21.4     6.6
     47.9975     50.0     31.10 
                   
 projected 1763.11 projected 1969.54 projected 1142.41 
 pace    pace    pace    
                   
     USDA 40.7  1495     USDA 36.84  1450 USDA30.6  1125 
                   
 Difference 268 myn bu    520 myn bu    17 myn bu
                   
12/26/2013    303     526     49 
12/19/2013    292     555     55 
12/12/2013    272     531     52 
12/5/2013    297     523     53 
11/28/2013    273     508     47 
                   
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