I'll give two examples, one bullish and one bearish. How can any analyst possibly predict and take into consideration things like the following examples? Yet unpredictable things happen relatively often. Yet the analyst can be so sure of their predictions. Till "no one saw that coming" and then they are on to the next prediction, none the worse for wear, because whatever group clings on to the theme they provide, they have new followers.

People like to cling to things.

Bearish case:

Japan and China get in a skirmish and some people get killed (by accident or not). Japan gets all huffy and hides behind the US skirts so the US gets involved. China gets pissed, and sells a bunch of US debt into the open market to flex their muscles. US retaliates by embargoing any business with China. There goes our grain exports to China - Anyone remember the Russian grain embargo? Corn futures fall to $2.

Bullish case:

Severe drought in southern hemisphere along with excessive rain in northern hemisphere causing late planting and a killing frost June 4th for everything north of I 70 followed by snowfall later that month. Can't happen? See the year without a summer. Widespread shortages along with severe inflationary pressures caused by stock and bond investors seeing greener pastures with rising commodity prices spike corn to $22 and beans hit $60.

How is Newsome or anyone else going to predict something like this? Yet he is pretty confident corn could hit $2 by 2015.

Give me a break, great Carnac the Magnificent. I guess as long as his prognostications put food on the table, it is a living. Me thinks we humans are sometimes like the ant that climbs to the top of the ant hill and declares all that can be seen his kingdom and under his control.

John