I listened to Aaron Johnson again today who is a NWS meterologist from Dodge City. 

He is the guy whom I talked about last year who has charted the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index) and the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index) to precipitation for Western Kansas.  When you are looking at 110+ years of data.. adding 12 months doesn't change things much.. Basically it was the EXACT SAME SPEECH as last year.. but tighned with a little more optimisim..  Basically that was.. "Well we've already been through a pretty rough patch.. so the odds say we are closer to being through it.. then we were this time last year.  Although the data can not confirm a bottom at this point in time.. Even in the 1930's we had wet spells.. aka 1935.. but they were only brief respites from the 7 year long event..  The wetter pattern in July and August of 2013 could be a hopeful sign.. or just a wet spell within the pattern... It's too early to know.."

He did say that the SW US was going to be warmer this winter.. that the Dakota's would be colder.. with a possible late start to the planting season.. (prevented planting for 2014..??) and that Illinois was going to be dryer than normal vs places like Kansas.. "it could be an area of concern for them."

Other than that.. pretty much as I wrote about almost a year ago..  reposting:
 
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http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=360913&posts=15#M2849540

I attended a couple winter meetings last year where the weather outlook was discussed.  At the first, a National Weather Service guy from Dodge City, Aaron Johnson predicted.. "more of the same" for 2012 as 2011.. in that there was a dividing line along about I-70 (in 2011 at least through Kansas) where it was a "pretty nasty drought.. basically a heat storm" to it's south while conditions were near normal on the other side.. This next year.. That line could move 150 to 200 miles either North or South.."  Which it did...

North. 

I say he basically nailed it.. and others agree.

The other guy said that 2011 was an anomoly at that we would be "back to normal" in 2012..

Wrong.

So.. yesterday I went back to listen to Johnson.

"Golly guys wish I had better news for ya.. but I don't see any major changes.. more of the same on the way."

His presentation was not unlike this guy's..

http://www.hpj.com/archives/2013/jan13/jan21/0111ColoradoDroughtKSsrMRJA.cfm?title=Forecaster%20says%20drought%20will%20get%20worse%20before%20it%20gets%20better

Other oscillations that have big influence involve the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and their fluctuations play a big role with the weather. Both go through cold and warm phases. The Pacific is bigger and it fluctuates in a much slower time frame, and once the Pacific gets locked into its phase, it's there for a while--like 25 to 30 years--if not a little more.

"How many farmers or ranchers do we have in here that are under 30 years old today? Anybody? You guys better pay attention to what I'm about to tell you here because you may be wanting to look for a new line of work," Bledsoe said. "These oscillations when they get locked in become extremely problematic for us getting moisture here in Colorado. We are reliving the 50s right now."

In the 1950s the Atlantic Ocean was warm and the Pacific was cold, and according to Bledsoe, whenever the Atlantic is warm and the Pacific is cold, there are drought problems. When the oceans are both cold, it's colder. During most of the 1990s and early 2000s the Pacific came out of its cold phase and warmed up.

"If the Pacific is warm you have more El Ninos. You have more frequent and longer lasting El Ninos, which are usually decent for us here and benefitting us with some moisture," Bledsoe said. "At the same time, the Atlantic was kind of asleep."

In 2005 the Pacific slipped back into its cold phase, meaning another 20 years before it shifts phase again. The Atlantic has been warm for a while now, and will probably shift in the next 3 to 10 years.

Johnson basically said the same thing.. 

"Most of you guys have lived during a wet period.. the past 20 to 30 years especially the 1980's were wet.. It could be another 30 to 50 years before things cycle back to THAT kind of a pattern..  Most of us will not live long enough to see that return.. the pattern that we are in NOW is dry.. it's not like it won't rain.. it's just that the ODDS of it raining are reduced.. major storm events will only occur about half as normal.. and if you miss that.. then you'll have to wait until the next one..  Someone will get lucky and got a bookoo toad strangler.. but the majority of the area will be dry.

It's nothing we haven't seen before.. it's not because of APGW or anything like that.. the 1890's were dry.. the 1930's were REALLY DRY.. like a 7 year long drought.. the 1950's were dry.. and we've just entered a period that will also be dry.. probably for the next couple of years to maybe a decade or two since about 2006..  Granted we had Heavy Rain years in the 30's and the 50's.. and we could again.. but that will be the exception.. vs the norm.  The good news is that today we have STRONG CONSERVATION PRACTICES and we know how to farm in this environment.. That is why things are better today than in the 1930's."

(I didn't take notes.. this is basically paraphrasing.. but I believe to be the just of his presentation.)

I coupled what Johnson was saying with what I heard my favorite radio weather person say back in 2011..

"Basically what we have here (in the summer of 2011) is about 45,000 feet of SUPER DRY Air over Texas, New Mexico, Colorado and Kansas.. and as fronts and moisture move into this.. they get wringed out because the humidity levels are so low.. they just die.. because the air mass is so dry.. What we NEED is a Hurricane to come into this thing and blow it up.. or dislodge it.. or move it out and replace it.. but until that happens.. things will remain the same."

That is why I surmised that the "shadow effect" "could" have implications to growing areas to our East of this super dry air mass.  Basically in Kansas.. as front comes through.. and it starts to rain maybe at say SW Ks.. West of Dodge gets 20% of the area gets maybe 1.5" and grows as it marches east.. we in the Central might get 80% coverage or thereabouts.. and by the time it reaches Columbia Missouri it's dumping bookoo rain... NOW this WHOLE PROCESS is shifted east... last year.. it would try to start on the OTHER SIDE of the dry dome.. and wouldn't get cranked up till somewhere PAST Illinois... which is what I still believe (right or not) what occured...

Now.. it looks like that area has moved north...???

Again.. Johnson.. showed a chart of some oscillation.. (edit add: PDO and AMO) I can't remember if it was the Atlantic or Pacific.. it wasn't the La Nina, El Nino.. he was talking about other LONGER CYCLEING measures from both Oceans.. and how that would SHIFT THE JET STREAM... into what has been a "dome of doom" over us the past couple of years..

Below it he plotted historical rainfall smoothed over a three year average.. and (trying to offer something positive here..) even in those bad dry years.. like the 30's,50's et all.. there were periods of high rainfall.. so we can still have good years.. it's just that there was a noticable trend of droughts.. and not as many good years.. as during the other wetter periods.. like the 1980's.

FWIW.. Wish it was better... "cheers."

PS.. I asked him about a chance of rain for this next week.. on Tuesday.. "too early to tell.."

lol...  So.. he even kind of chuckled.. but said weather is complex.. and there's a lot we don't know.. but looking at history.. that's the best I can go on.