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2014- Year of Demand
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tink
Posted 11/23/2013 12:13 (#3463695 - in reply to #3463416)
Subject: RE: 2014- Year of Demand



I am more bullish than most here, and I am bullish by demand. As I believed in August, it was and is underestimated.

Previously, I've mentioned the inverse relationship of the present to that of 2009. Comparitively, world economies were much worse than today, as measured by manufacturing output. Yet, present output, measured in 2005 dollars, is less than the peak of 2010/11. My expectation is for economies to grow beyond that peak, and with growth, demand, also, will grow.

That, I will call the base.

What gives a currency strength? Convertibility. Liquidity. A fiscally sound and civil government. The three majors.
With regard to currencies, the expression, "two out of three ain't bad", does not apply. 

In the last several years, China has been moving - in small steps - to promote currency convertibility. First in South America, now in Australia, parts of Asia and the RoW. 

In 2010, The PBOC moved the renminbi to a managed float against the dollar. Since then, they've allow it to appreciate against the dollar. This serves - at least - two purposes: American goods - and all major dollar denominated commodites - are less expensive. Secondly - and perhaps most importantly - China requires fewer dollars when purchasing such goods.

Together, they are a mechanism toward their goal of reducing world demand for dollars, and increasing demand for the renminbi.  

Earlier this year, I posted a thread topic of petro dollars - I referred to it as the dollar's achilles heel. Crude, by many, is considered the world's de facto reserve currency. The sheer volume of dollars required each day to supply energy to the world is enormous. By itself, this lends tremendous strength to the dollar. We know China and other countries are reaching agreements to bypass the dollar/crude trade. In some irony, it was the US embargo of Iranian oil that precipitated trading crude in other currencies and gold. Governments learn.

As the renminbi strengthens against the dollar, what does China do with all those dollars they're holding? Obviously, if they allow the present exchange rate to continue, they lose wealth. Or, they can take those dollars and buy assets that have intrinsic value - land, manufacturing, mining, agricultural products etc. 

Okay, it has taken me awhile to get here, but this is where I believe some caution necessary. 

Should China begin(or are they already?) hoarding commodities, there could be future negative consequences. Through their admittance into the WTO they are constrained with anti-dumping laws, but laws are like lines on a chart - often violated. Once the deed is done, market psychology rules. In my opinion, China could - to some degree - control and stabilize market(s) fluctuations, through such actions. A surge tank for the world's commodities. 



 

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