Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | First I purposely choose the eleven year period in order to avoid the trendline.
Second, research & conventional wisdom indicates the most important factors which explain the variation in yield are:
1) Crop weather 70 bushel
2) Nitrogen fertilizer 70 bushel
3) Variety 50 bushel
4) Rotation 25 bushel
5) Population 20 bushel
6) Tillage 15 bushel
7) Chemicals, pesticides etc 10 bushel
These factors interact, too much rain washs the nitrogen out of the root zone. Some varieties tolerate drought better, etc. etc.
The last two years very clearly and dramatically illustrate the effect of weather on yield. Last year there was widespread and sustained drought the yield was 123 bushel/A. This year most areas had adequate to abundant moisture consequently 160 bushel yield.
After I plotted out the average yields I was surprised at how consistent they were with the exception of a couple three years. The point I tried to make was that unless the weather is extreme again next year or the new drought tolerant varieties are more widely available we should expect average national yields to be in a narrow range near 150 bushel per acres.
Please remember I didn't make this up. I just plotted it out. |
2014 corn punditry
