I showed below how through the power of Quantitative Feeding.. (something USDA learned from the Fed..;-) they could recognize 13/14 production to meet 12/13 demand.. to the tune of 276 myn bushels..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=429589&posts=35#M3439534 

First, about 3.4% of the total US crop was harvested before Sept 3rd from these states..

Al brought in 45 myn bu x .06 harvested on Sept 3rd = 2.7 myn bu of 13/14 New Crop delivered in the 12/13 crop year..

Ar 155.6 x .24 = 37.3

Ga 84.2 x .53 = 44.6

Ky 247 x .01 = 2.5

La 121 x .74 = 89.5

Ms 146.7 x .35 = 51.3*  Again we do not know the exact percentage but they were done by 4th week of Sept and 14% done on 8/25th..

NC 121.8 x .21 = 25.6

SC 44.2 x .37 = 16.4

Tn 130 x .02 = 2.6

Tx 283 x .59 = 167

 "So that sums to 439.5 myn bushels that was harvested in the 12/13 crop year.. So now this becomes..

say 439 myn bu got harvested THIS year before Sept 3rd.. and say 276 myn bu got somewhere and fed..(OR 12/13 crop was overstated..)  and the other 163 was sitting in a bin..  USDA found the 163 and raised it's ending carryout from 661 to 824..   The Feed and Residual # is backed in from the previous year.. well we raised..10,781.. carried in 989 imported 162 = 11,932  then we Crushed/milled 1,366.. converted to ethanol 4,648 used 30 as seed.. exported 731.. and the Stocks report says we had 824 left over.. SO.. that must mean that we fed.. the balance of 4,333

When in fact we pulled 439 myn bu forward.. fed.. 276 + 4,333 = 4,609 padded the carry IN number with the other 163.. AND COUNTED the WHOLE 439 myn bushels AGAIN.. in the CROP size of 13,989 as available for 13/14... which drawing a line in the sand of Sept 1st.. REALLY becomes.. 13,989 - 439= 13,550..  WHICH.. is pretty dang close to yours truely's estimate..   "uh-hum" of the Corn crop size harvested (post Sept 1st)

So we REALLY have the 13,550 + 824 = 14,374 + 25 imports = 14,399 vs the 14,837 that USDA has on it's books... and therefore the REAL carry out number is gonna become.. 276 myn bu less (already recognized the 163..in stocks) or.. 1,887 - 276 = 1611 myn bushels + whatever is harvested before Sept 1st 2014..

Furthermore, the forecasted feed number of 5,200 doesn't look so humongous when compared to what was ACTUALLY Fed in 12/13 of 4,609 vs the reported and WRONG # of 4,333... when some talking head says..  "well golly there's no way we go from 4,333 to 5.200... blah blah blah..."       


Now how will USDA fix this? 


They will probably cut the 12/13 crop size by 276 myn bushels..10,781 - 276 = 10,505 which then fixes their Quant adjusted feed number back to 4,609.. which is what it was.. before the Quant feeding.. and lower carry out's across the board.. subject to what the final 13/14 number is..  824 becomes - 276 = 548 for 12/13 ending stocks and 1887 becomes 1,611 myn bushels for 13/14.

edit :  nope that still double counts the 163.. so still will need to work that out..?? probably bury that in 13/14 feed useage as ending stocks for 13/14 ASSUMING a 13,989 crop is gonna = 1,448 as they have it right now.. subject to a whole nother year 13/14 of sorting it out.. and "mid course" corrections...
 
What am I missing here? 


Edit again:  OKAY.. 10,505 - 12/13 Carry out of 824.. can't change that = Feed Useage of 4,606.. Okay fixed that. So 10,505 Crop and 824 are set in stone.. that pulls the 276 out.. but they still have to pull the 439 TOTAL out.. which right now.. would have to come out of the 160.4 yield number which makes the 13,989 - 439 = 13,550 = 1,887 - 439 = 1,448 carry out.. Subject to other adjustments to crop size.. OR.. they could leave the crop at 13,989 and bump feed useage UP.. they already recognized 100.. another  439-100 = 339 to 5,539 and THAT fixes it.. at 1,448 Carry out...


Whew.. golly this is harder than I thunk it would be...  

Okay.. so they lower 12/13 crop to 10,505 leaving 824 stocks alone.. gets them past that point.. then they probably adjust a little of both the Yield/productiuon number and the feed number but either way.. as of right now.. they have to hit 1,448 carry out.. OR we raised a much bigger crop than 13,989 (seriously..??? I don't see that..)

Anywho.. definitely will have the popcorn in hand for the next USDA adjustments...  "this is gonna get interesting.."