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Red River Valley | although beans had a little fireworks in them.
I exited all short position , but never got the chance that I hoped for to get long corn and only got one long bean contract bought.
so the question begs where to from here ---
It is my opinion that the funds were looking for a spike down low to exit some short position and get to smaller net short I do not think they will chase anything higher and will most likely roll to the March or the May and wait out the farmer. I have stated many times that they don't fear being short with the farmer holding so much un priced corn and at this point I see nothing that changes my mind. The next hurdle to come is the RFS Mandate level I have seen nothing from the Ethanol Industry that makes me believe that the number will be any different than the one that was leaked a couple 4 weeks ago. In our area E-85 is Priced about .40 under E-10 and sales are all but dried up. Many are banging the drum on exports and the very nice sales commitments that have been racked up and they are nice, the one problem I see with them is that they are all being sold for the M,A,M time frame a lot of those bushels feel like Insurance bushels to me and I will need to see a very strong run in Export Inspections to buy into the Number USDA just produced in the last report. Lastly the feed number was raised 100 million was that a heads up for the market on what looks to be a cut in DDGs coming down the pipe ??
Once we get by the Mandate announcement ( which I think will happen middle of this upcoming week) then I think most of the bad news is out of the market until 2014 so not much to make me think we can go much lower but I have seen nothing that makes me believe that any meaningful rally is going to happen either. If I was a betting man I think we muddle through and give away market carry ( which we have been doing for the last 2 weeks).
If one was pushing a bullish corn market watching the reaction of the CBOT to the report on Friday ( when it was feed a pretty bullish report in a bear leaning market ) would not leave me with a lot of hope of weeing a 50+ cent rally.
to Beans I think that beans have the last best chance to try and drive this market higher but going long a $13.00 is not where I would make big bets from. My biggest headwind to beans is that the funds already have built a bigger long position than they are comfortable with and will look at strength as the chance to get out of longs ahead of a south American crop that is only about 60 days from harvest. Can we rally from here sure will we break $14.00 not unless the Big Bake can get started in SA and it needs to happen pretty soon. but under no conditions would I be looking to short beans at this time and price. for the record I have some beans (small percent) in the bin and am playing against the odds of an Inverted market but what the heck might as well be bullish something for a couple 4 - 5 weeks. Demand is nice and crush is good so roll baby roll and see where we get to.
As for wheat well If all of your Kansas boys would have not been on here talking about how you are going to quit rasing corn and push wheat acres to the max maybe some of us boys up north could have got some $9.00 wheat sold but the almost $1.00 rally in wheat has now melted to almost nothing. Thanks for killing the only market we had a chance with **
lastly is Sugar Beets good luck with that one have been offered beet share rent for next year a $1.00 per acre if I want them needless to say I going to pass on that one. good luck boys hope you saved up all those record profits from last year because things are going to get pretty interesting in those fields over the next few years MO.
so heres my Marketing thoughts from post report forward.
Corn will be dead duck market showing no more life over the next 3 weeks than it has over the last 3 weeks and than we shall see what the guys do with end of the year selling. Beans maybe just maybe can pull one out of the hat and drag corn up a bit. Wheat well I think harvest starts somewhere next week and every week after that funds unloaded there shorts over the last month gave a rally and then the farmer talk took all he money back out of the market and we are about flat.
best I can hope for is maybe to sell option premium for the next little while I think selling corn options is a waste of time and effort but maybe selling bean calls on rallies and puts on selloffs has some reward.
then again maybe not.
nice thing about the markets over the next 2 months is that one will not have to spend a lot of time watching the "screen" as checking in once or twice a day should be enough.
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Well that was kinda ho hum I guess
