|
Rockford, IL | I pretty much agree with Informa's numbers from a S&D standpoint. We are going to have a hard time getting back the demand we lost this year with a slight hole in end user marketing. Exports will be tough as private deals are becoming more prevalent now that other countries are producing good quality grains. Other countries do not have the infrastructure like we do and literally have to sell their grain as they are unable and uninterested in storing it waiting for higher prices :) The final EPA will have an impact but seems pretty unlikely that we will increase corn usage for ethanol in 2014 which many banked on. There are too many acres available for all crops to get us farmers to grow close to the 80-82 million acres probably needed to get us back to equilibrium. I personally think more acres will go to corn than maybe many others as prices are still attractive especially when we see what SA does with their soybean acres. The government has made corn very attractive with the advent of the Trend Adjusted Yield availability for crop insurance and it is a huge help on the corn side. Even the county T-Yields we are given for new corn ground is very good. There are many farmers that are taking advantage of the private insurance products that allow them to pre-set their 2014 crop insurance spring price for corn now rather than wait until next March and they are getting very good spring prices for corn such as $5.26, $4.93 and probably above $4.70 (depending on the month they bought). Prices may not drop much more short term as harvest is slow but afraid what might happen with the USDA does reveal their next report and "confirms" a big crop. Looking at a CZ13 daily chart I am seeing a fast MACD that is short along with a resistance line that has not been violated for quite some time and the market was unable to break through it at $4.48 and is now at $4.37. If you look at the CZ14 chart it is almost identical to the CZ13 just at a higher price. I do see the double bottom pattern and I hope that it means prices will go higher but there is a lot for that pattern to overcome. I also do not think we want to see prices go higher because that will only prompt more corn acres in 2014 and if we have a good crop in 2014 it will just make our marketing year that much more painful next year and beyond. | |
|
Flirting with $5.00 corn already...
