Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | The question that nobody seems to be able to answer is whether USDA has already partially adjusted for the prevent plant acres in their June 28 report. And, whether their planted acres, 97.4? was even close as there is talk that it was actually higher.
Personally, given the spring weather in the northern corn growing areas that it doesn't seem reasonable that anything like 97 million acres were planted. So the reasonable conclusion is that the maybe 93.8 million were planted (97.4-3.6).
That still leaves the failed acres to account for. Judging from all the aerial pictures of drowned out corn in Iowa and Southern Minn it seems reasonable to assume there are signifigant acres there. How much?? And it is possible that USDA is accounting for the drownout acreage in the yield number?
Finally, Until last year about 6 million acres were harvest as silage on average. How much extra was chopped in Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri due to the dry weather?
So that puts an upper limit of about 87.8 planted for grain. Meanwhile , FSA reported that about 83 million acres were planted and reported as corn for grain. This is a quite large difference, 4.8 million acres. Granted some corn is planted and not reported but how much, 4.8 million acres? Not likely, so even if you split the difference that at 2.4 this gives you 85.4 million acres harvested for grain (87.8-2.4).
And in conclusion, using the USDA yield of 155 bpa this gives a 2013 crop of 13.2 million bushels. I just can't see how they get it to 13.8.
For what it is worth.
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Prevent Plant Acres
